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Culture Change print magazine issues: 20  19  18  17  16  15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  index

Pedal Power solutions to petroleum dependence and polluting vehicles: Arcata Library Bikes, Pedal Power Produce, and more!

CAOE - Committee Against Oil Exploration - stop offshore oil drilling to protect sensitive habitats and cut petroleum dependence.

Culture Change through music! The Depavers eco-rock!

Take our Pledge for Climate Protection and learn about the Global Warming Crisis Council.

SEI hometown action!
Arcata city council's proclamation against war on Iraq and Kyoto Protocol proclamation.

Overpopulation has become a reality.  Overpopulation Resources and News Tidbits

Sail Transport Network

Fact Sheets
Press Releases

Long Distance


"Predict and Provide" Planning is a Dead End

Imbedded in the culture of transportation bureaucracies throughout North America is a "predict and provide" approach to transportation management. This approach, based on the assumption that the predicted traffic growth must be provided for at all costs, inevitably results in promoting further congestion.

Here is how it works:

1. A traffic study is conducted, basing future traffic predictions on past trends and travel habits (themselves the result of catering to predicted traffic demand).

2. These traffic predictions show that in 20 years the present road system will be unable to handle the volume of traffic predicted.

3. Road space for the predicted traffic is provided for in the present. These roads, by their very design, are expected to have spare capacity to take traffic for the next 20 years.

4. Road expansion projects encourage cities to spread out as car travel times are reduced, allowing for access to more affordable suburban housing.

5. Ridership on public transport declines as trip time for the car is reduced. Sprawling communities make it impossible for transit to be efficient or economical. As ridership decreases, transit service further deteriorates, pushing more people into cars.

6. The increase in automobile use leads to the clogging of the expanded road system within a couple of years of its completion. Transportation planners attend conferences and write articles in professional journals congratulating themselves on their foresight in predicting the need for the expanded road system.

7. A new traffic study is then conducted, based on the higher-than-expected road usage. This of course leads to the conclusion that the road will be hopelessly inadequate before 20 years is up, thus requiring further expansion programs.

8. Back to #1 (above).

(Derived from Citizens Advocating Responsible Transportation. 1993. pp. 12-13)


Articles of interest:
Anti-globalization protest grows, with tangible results.  WTO protests page

Tax fossil-fuel energy easily
by Peter Salonius

UK leader calls War on Terror "bogus"

Argentina bleeds toward healing by Raul Riutor

The oil industry has plans for you: blow-back by Jan Lundberg

It's not a war for oil? by Adam Khan

How to create a pedestrian mall by Michelle Wallar

The Cuban bike revolution

How GM destroyed the U.S. rail system excerpts from the film "Taken for a Ride".

"Iraqi oil not enough for US: Last days of America?"

Depaving the world by Richard Register

Roadkill: Driving animals to their graves by Mark Matthew Braunstein

The Hydrogen fuel cell technofix: Spencer Abraham's hydrogen dream.

Ancient Forest Protection in Northern California . Forest defenders climb trees to save them.

Daniel Quinn's thoughts on this website.

A case study in unsustainable development is the ongoing crisis in Palestine and Israel.

Renewable and alternative energy information.

Conserving energy at home (Calif. Title 24)



Culture Change/Sustainable Energy Institute mailing address: P.O. Box 3387 , Santa Cruz , California 95063 USA
  Telephone 1-215-243-3144 (and fax)

Culture Change (Trademarked) is published by Sustainable Energy Institute (formerly Fossil Fuels Policy Action), a nonprofit, 501(c)(3) California non-stock corporation. Contributions are tax-deductible.